## MIS 665 Prescriptive Analytics and Advanced Topics GCU

### MIS 665 Full Course Discussions GCU

#### MIS 665 Topic 1 DQ 1

Forecasting techniques rely on the adage that history repeats itself. Many times, though, it has been noted that there is no guarantee that historical patterns will repeat and, even if they do, it can be difficult or impossible to predict when a pattern will repeat itself. Provide two time series examples that seemed stable and predictable until there was a significant change to the pattern. Was there a way to predict the pattern change? Explain.

#### MIS 665 Topic 1 DQ 2

Technically, once a time series model is built, any future value can be forecasted. For example, assume you built a model that forecasts monthly sales of a product given the last 3 months of sales. Using the model, you forecasted monthly sales for the next 6 months, and the model provided very accurate predicted sales.

Your manager wants to use your model to predict sales for the next 5 years. What are some problems that could occur with extending the forecast horizon out that far? How would this affect your confidence in the forecasted values for a year? Five years? Explain.

#### MIS 665 Topic 2 DQ 1

Consider the following scenario and address the questions that follow.

Suppose your company wanted to determine the amount of sales of a new SUV model, called *Lightning*. The sales estimate would be based on the overall demand of various SUV model types. Overall demand is assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 3 million units and standard deviation of 500,000 units. The share of demand that *Lightning* will take is assumed to be 4%. After running 1,000 simulated scenarios, a 95% confidence interval was constructed for the expected sales of *Lightning* units sold with limits of 93,048 and 146,964.

- If 1,000 new simulated scenarios were run, would you get the exact result? Explain why.
- Would the results be more stable if you ran 2,000 runs? Explain why.
- Is there a number of simulations that can be run so that the results do not change if you re-ran the simulations? Explain.

#### MIS 665 Topic 2 DQ 2

Reconsider the scenario presented in DQ 1 and address the questions that follow.

Suppose your company wanted to determine the amount of sales of a new SUV model, called *Lightning*. The sales estimate would be based on the overall demand of various SUV model types. Overall demand is assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 3 million units and standard deviation of 500,000 units. The share of demand that *Lightning* will take is assumed to be 4%. After running 1,000 simulated scenarios, a 95% confidence interval was constructed for the expected sales of *Lightning* units sold with limits of 93,048 and 146,964.

- If a mean of 6 million units was used in the simulation, how would the confidence interval change? Explain.
- How would the confidence interval change if a standard deviation of 250,000 was used? Explain.

#### MIS 665 Topic 3 DQ 1

Before computers were widespread, almost all risk analysis was done without simulation. Therefore, only a handful of scenarios could be formulated to understand the risk of a decision. Typically, a best-case and worst-case scenario was determined and decisions were based on these two scenarios. What are some of the drawbacks of this decision-making approach? Specifically, how does the capability to summarize 1,000s of simulated scenarios improve the approach?

#### MIS 665 Topic 3 DQ 2

By definition, simulations require a distribution to be specified (e.g., normal, Poisson). Many times, the exact distribution to be used is unknown, so it must be assumed. One argument against using simulations to perform risk analysis is that there is no real benefit because the set of assumptions is simply shifted from assumed parameter values to assumed distributions of parameters. Comment on this argument and justify your opinions with reasons, facts, and examples.

#### MIS 665 Topic 4 DQ 1

Many times, linear optimization is used to maximize an objective function because profit, productivity, or efficiency is the outcome of interest. Provide two examples where the goal is to optimize a process by minimizing an objective function. In your examples, identify the outcome and any constraints that would need to be met.

#### MIS 665 Topic 4 DQ 2

When many constraints are present in a linear optimization problem, there is a greater chance that a redundant constraint exists. Assume you are trying to maximize an objective function and you have two decision variables, X_{1} and X_{2}. If a redundant constraint exists, does the constraint become necessary if you try to minimize (instead of maximize) the same objective function? Why? Do you need an objective function to determine if a constraint is redundant? Explain.

#### MIS 665 Topic 5 DQ 1

Many linear optimization problems can be solved by finding a graphical solution, but there are some problems that require more advanced spreadsheets and software to find an optimal solution. Describe an optimization problem in which finding a solution would be impossible using the feasible-region approach. Discuss the attributes the problem would have to make it impossible to solve using the feasible-region approach.

#### MIS 665 Topic 5 DQ 2

Optimization techniques are used in many applications. For example, when customers order products from an online store, the shipper has to determine the optimal way to get the product delivered to the customer. The delivery path that is chosen is the path that minimizes shipping costs while simultaneously satisfying these constraints:

- The product must arrive by a promised date.
- The shipper must deliver a finite set of items.
- The product must originate from one of several warehouse hubs across the country.

Discuss whether there can be multiple solutions (i.e., more than one path to get the product to your house). Explain why. Is there a guarantee that a solution always exists? Explain.

#### MIS 665 Topic 6 DQ 1

Most transshipment network modeling problems assume the costs are constant. For example, the costs of shipping a product from one city to another are assumed fixed. This can change over time if fuel costs change. If you knew the distribution of fuel costs, how could the distribution of fuel costs be incorporated into the transshipment problem? Discuss the benefits of employing this approach.

#### MIS 665 Topic 6 DQ 2

Minimum spanning trees were initially design to solve electrical grid problems but now have many more applications such as computer networks, transportation networks, and supply networks. Describe a business problem where minimum spanning trees can be used to find a solution.

#### MIS 665 Topic 7 DQ 1

Can linear and nonlinear optimization problems use the same approach to find a solution? For example, if the GRG algorithm is used to solve a nonlinear optimization problem, will it work to solve a linear optimization problem? Discuss whether or not the GRG algorithm will always find a corner point similar to the feasible-region approach.

#### MIS 665 Topic 7 DQ 2

Nonlinear optimization problems can have multiple solutions, and a solution can be local or global. Can there be multiple local solutions? Explain your answer. Can there be multiple global solutions? Explain our answer.

#### MIS 665 Topic 8 DQ 1

Betamax (or Beta) was a video recording format developed by Sony in the 1970s. Sony conducted research and found that consumers wanted a high-quality picture when using a Beta cassette with their home recording equipment. Sony developed the technology with video quality in mind and, as a consequence, limited the recording time to only 60 minutes.

At the same time, JVC developed the Video Home System (VHS) but without much consumer research. JVC was more interested in developing a unified standard for broadcast operations. Consequently, they focused more on extending the recording time for their VHS cassettes at the expense of picture quality.

In the end, the VHS format won by eventually squeezing the Beta format out of the market. Discuss the approaches these two companies took in the good decisions/good outcomes context.

#### MIS 665 Topic 8 DQ 2

Suppose you received two job offers when looking for a job, one from Company A and one from Company B. To make a decision, what type of methodology would you use: probabilistic or nonprobabilistic? Whichever you choose, describe the items to consider and the decision rules you would use before deciding which job offer to accept.

### MIS 665 Full Course Assignments GCU

#### MIS 665 Topic 1 Forecasting Techniques

The purpose of this assignment is to use predictive analytics techniques and the graphs and charts associated with these techniques to forecast outcomes and make business decisions.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 1 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 12 Problems 28, 30, 34, 46, 60, 62 (b through e), and 63 from the textbook. Use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to complete these problems where requested and applicable. Problem 60 should be completed using only Excel.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.
- Ensure that Excel files include the associated cell functions and/or formulas if functions and/or formulas are used.
- Include a written response to all narrative questions presented in the problem by placing it in the associated Excel file.
- Place each problem in its own Excel file. Ensure that your first and last name are in your Excel file names.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

#### MIS 665 Topic 2 Simulation Problems

The purpose of the assignment is to gather the information needed to set up problems, run simulations, and interpret the results to solve the problems.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 2 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 15, Problems 2, 7, 9, 32 (parts a and b only), 33, and 35 from the textbook. Use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to complete these problems where requested and applicable. Problem 2 only requires the use of Microsoft Excel; however, you may optionally use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to generate the histogram.

Use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to complete the rest of the problems and ensure that all Palisade software output is included in your files. Unless otherwise stated, run simulations with 1,000 trials. Use 500 trials if the software will not allow you to run 1,000 trials. Ensure that only one Excel file is open when running a simulation.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.
- Ensure that Excel files include the associated cell functions and/or formulas if functions and/or formulas are used.
- Include a written response to all narrative questions presented in the problem by placing it in the associated Excel file.
- Include screenshots of all simulation distribution results for output variables.
- Place each problem in its own Excel file. Ensure that your first and last name are in your Excel file names.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

#### MIS 665 Topic 3 Benchmark – Simulation and Risk Analysis Case Study

The purpose of this assignment is to use analytics techniques to analyze a case problem.

__Part 1__

Read Case Study Case 15.2 “Ebony Bath Soap” from the textbook, and then complete the following items.

- For Questions 1 and 2 of the case, use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to set up a simulation model and run a simulation with 500 trials for the case. Ensure that all Palisade software output is included in your files and that only one Excel file is open when running a simulation. Use the “Topic 3 Case Study Template” file as a starting point.
**Hint:**The RiskSimtable function was be helpful for running the simulations. - Respond to Question 3 as written in the problem. Ignore the confidence interval portion of the question.
- Respond to Question 4 as written in the problem.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.
- Ensure that Excel files include the associated cell functions and/or formulas if functions and/or formulas are used.
- Include a written response to all narrative questions presented in the problem by placing it in the associated Excel file.
- Include screenshots of all simulation distribution results for output variables.
- Place each problem in its own Excel file. Ensure that your first and last name are in your Excel file names.

__Part 2__

In a 500-750-word summary to company management, address the following. Include relevant charts and graphs within your summary, as needed.

- Describe the case specific business requirements and how they can be communicated across all levels of the organization.
- Based on the simulation results, discuss the Annual Cost output statistical distributions. Assume that your audience as minimal background in statistics.
- Discuss which Annual Cost output probability distribution has the most dispersion, and explain why this is so.
- Explain the descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics that have been used to formulate the solutions to the business needs.
- Based on the Annual Cost output statistical distributions and other information gleaned from your analysis, discuss the specific prescribed course of action you would recommend to company management and justify your recommendations. Include discussion of how the proposed analytics solutions can optimize organizational performance and effectiveness.

While APA style is not required for the body of this assignment, solid academic writing is expected, and documentation of sources should be presented using APA formatting guidelines, which can be found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

You are required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite. Refer to the LopesWrite Technical Support articles for assistance.

*Benchmark Information*

*This benchmark assignment assesses the following programmatic competencies: *

*MS Business Analytics*

*2.1: Interpret and communicate business requirements across levels of an organization.*

*2.3: Formulate solutions to business needs using descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics.*

*2.5: Evaluate analytics-based solutions to optimize organizational performance and effectiveness.*

#### MIS 665 Topic 4 Linear Optimization – Part 1

The purpose of this assignment is to employ linear optimization techniques, interpret results, and determine optimal solutions for business problems.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 4 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 13, Problems 25 (part a), 28 (part a), 31 (part a), 32 (part a), and 37 (part a) from the textbook. Use Microsoft Excel’s Solver Add-In to complete these problems. For each of these problems, run the Solver’s Answer and Sensitivity Reports. Interpret and summarize the key results.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that all Solver settings are defined through the use of the Solver dialog box.
- Include Answer and Sensitivity Reports interpretation and summary of key results.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

#### MIS 665 Topic 5 Linear Optimization – Part 2

The purpose of this assignment is to solve business problems using linear optimization techniques and interpret the results to determine optimal solutions for business problems.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 5 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 14, Problems 79 (part a), 80 (part a), 81, 86 (part a), and 89 from the textbook. Use Microsoft Excel’s Solver Add-In to complete these problems. For all problems except 89, run the Solver’s Answer and Sensitivity Reports. Interpret and summarize the key results.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that all Solver settings are defined through the use of the Solver dialog box.
- Include Answer and Sensitivity Reports interpretation and summary of key results.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

#### MIS 665 Topic 6 Network Modeling

The purpose of this assignment is to introduce how network models can be used to solve a business problem.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 6 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 14, Problems 15, 16, 17, 20, and 88. Use Microsoft Excel’s Solver Add-In to complete these problems. For problems 17, 20, and 88, run the Solver’s Answer and Sensitivity Reports. Interpret and summarize the key results.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that all Solver settings are defined through the use of the Solver dialog box.
- Include Answer and Sensitivity Reports interpretation and summary of key results.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

#### MIS 665 Topic 7 Nonlinear Optimization

The purpose of this assignment is to introduce how to find solutions to business problems using nonlinear optimization techniques.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 7 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 14, Problems 69, 70 (ignore the SolverTable portion), 72 (ignore the SolverTable portion), and 94. Use Microsoft Excel’s Solver Add-In to complete these problems. For Problems 70, 72, and 94, run the Solver’s Answer and Sensitivity Reports. Interpret and summarize the key results.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that all Solver settings are defined through the use of the Solver dialog box.
- Include Answer and Sensitivity Reports interpretation and summary of key results.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

#### MIS 665 Topic 8 Decision-Making Techniques

The purpose of this assignment is to show how business decisions can be made by using rigorous decision-making techniques.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 8 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 6, Problems 2, 31 (part a), 32, and 33 from the textbook. Use Microsoft Excel to complete Problem 2. Use the Palisade DecisionTools software to complete Problems 31, 32, and 33, and ensure that all Palisade software output is included in your files. The Palisade DecisionTools Excel software needs to be used to create the decision trees.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

- Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.

APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.

You are not required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite.

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